The Roadmap facilitated the opportunity of hosting a Somali-owned conference in Mogadishu and Garowe for the first time in Somalia’s post-civil war history; the first Consultative Meeting on ending the transition was held in Mogadishu from September 4-6, 2011, followed by Garowe conference in which was held from 21-23 December, 2011. The process of the roadmap is spelled out in a first grade level language just to make sure there are not descripences. The meeting was advertized to the intended stakeholders. “Inclusivity and Participation”:The implementation of the priority tasks in the Roadmap shall be inclusive with participation of the TFG, TFP, Puntland Government of Somalia, Galmudug State of Somalia, ASWJ and Civil Society”.
Thus, the argument against roadmap is ultimately an argument against reason itself. Not that the roadmap is substitute for reason; quite the contrary, it is a product of reason and it assists us in the application of the reason. As much as one might tempted to disagree with the principles or perhaps some elements of the Roadmap, the fact is that an honest inspection of history reveals that Somalia has been bogged down for its own leaders refusing to reach a collaborative solution. The lack of personal accountability and the never ending crisis among our leaders was the rationale that led the creation of the roadmap. The “Kampala Accord” meant to be the “Stick” while the roadmap was the “carrot” combining a promised reward with a threatening punishment. “The Roadmap” lays out clear benchmarks whilst Kampala Accord mandates, a wide range of measures addressing issues including threats of impeachment of the president, Speaker, the two deputy Speakers of parliament as well as the dismissal of the parliament. On the other hand, the Roadmap empowers Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI), put pressure onto political stake holders to engage peace process initiatives, and to end transitional period. The international community and the office of UNPOS are, hence, obliged to uphold the ongoing Roadmap initiative and forcefully expel anyone who acts otherwise. In addition, the roadmap mandates set of factors and benchmarks that will (a) finalize the constitution (b) De quantify the size of the parliamentarian members (c) and above all, end the transition period.
Immense outcomes as a result of the roadmap:
Despite the financial difficulties and the security challenges the T FG is faced with, its leaders accomplished in short time something that could not possibly had been overcome by the nearly 15 talks aimed at public reconciliation and accords on a future political structure for the country.
In conjunction with AMISOM troops, the Transitional Federal Government and the Somali capital of Mogadishu is experiencing relative security for the first time in 20 years on which over 95 percent of the capital is now controlled by the Transitional Federal Government. The militant group of Al-Shabaab largely withdrew from Mogadishu in August 2011 under pressure from Somalia government forces and AMISOM–the African Union peacekeeping mission, after being almost in control of the capital for two years.
Mogadishu Beach…… After 20 years of despair and anguished in recent days people in Mogadishu have experienced a sense of hope after Alshabab rebels were ousted in Mogadishu. These photos exhibit joy and stability in the Somalia capital of Mogadishu
In my opinion, these remarkable milestones that mentioned above were impossible to achieve without clear and concise mandates that is customized into the roadmap tasks. The main strength of the roadmap is the institutional checks and balances, and constraints imposed upon the powers including government authorities as well as the opportunity for allowing a full clan representation.
In light of Garowe conference and the adoption of the constitution, there are many ways to view the event and, in hindsight, it is easy to think and understand it; for some, the “Garowe Conference” is Somali determined conference and golden opportunity given to the Somalia nation once again. For others, “their sub-clan was not invited in Garowe conference”. As is so often the case when one is dissembling, those who pervert the meaning and application progress of the Garowe Conference refuse to even discuss quite a number of relevant facts while twisting and misrepresenting the few quotes upon which they rest their errant and flawed position.
Garowe Conference: is perceived by a great majority as historic moment by the Somali people because this was the first time a conference of this kind was held inside Somalia. It was obvious from the outset though that some Interest groups who believe peace emerging from negotiations threatens their power, worldview, and interests, and use propaganda to undermine and object any positive development in our country. Besides the “naysayers” who are always on the opposite side of the spectrum, the more profound question is whether or not the objectives of the Accord were achieved: The conference was “convened” by Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) and by U.N.P.O.S. Attendees were “signatories” to the old Roadmap – the T.F.G., the Transitional Federal Parliament (T.F.P.), Puntland Government of Somalia, Galmudug State of Somalia and AhluSunnaWal-Jama’a (A.S.W.J.) If success was measured by the outcome of the conference, then, the pact was successful. Three points seem to be axiomatic: (a) Federalism base formula was agreed (b) the number of lawmakers were reduced from 550 to 225. (c) 4.5 formulas were agreed as opposed to regional administration. Among other measures were the broad base representation of civil society organizations, youth groups and woman. While a significant progress of the benchmarks of the roadmap has been delivered in a short period of time, it is too early to declare victory because some of the heavy-lifting work that’s yet to be undertaken.
Point often overlooked as to why we’re in this ditch so long. As has been noted in various times, some of the obstacles to peace for so long are individuals such as those who seek to undermine peace, stability, progress and always subject to declined any given plan that potentially could yield lasting peace to Somalia.
These personalities are enemies to peace in their core and will never run out of excuses. At this critical moment in Somali history when the country is at a crossroads and much is at stake for the future of Somalia as a nation, we must as Somalis joint hands and give peace a chance in order to escape from the current predicament and the routine we seem made a habit. We’re reminded again that we’re confronted by a conflict between the Somali national interest vs. parochial clannish interests of particular groups and individuals under the pretense of “Somali intellectuals”. In spite of the remarkable milestone that has been achieved over the last five months, some who are spewing the same rhetoric are gaining momentum to undermine the peace process without offering an alternative to peace process. It’s regrettable, and unless and until these types of pretentious personalities and double standards are properly dealt with, we will again find ourselves in the same dead end. One important lesson to take away from this however is that Somalia deadlock cannot be overcome while clan leaders, engaging in the sort of murky politics and gray compromise.
Consequence of failure of the road map:
1-Failure of the Somalia Road Map could lead to renew fighting as already evident in Mogadishu; most recent eruption between parliamentarian members is an apparent indication as to what can happen if there is no punishment afterwards.
2-Failure of the Roadmap would certainly result Alshabab regaining stronghold in Mogadishu and its surrounding and continue their business of torturing woman and children.
3-Likewise, it will result Somalia’s top leaders continue in conducting businesses as usual by continuing to be corrupt and fight amongst themselves.
4-By the same token, with attention to more than 1,000’s of AMISOM soldiers as well as countless Transitional Federal Government soldiers killed during the process of ousting Alshabab, their lives will be lost in vain.
5-With all things considered, the failure of the roadmap will be divesting news for the Somali people; the seeds of hope and the progress that sprang over the past few months, including the considerable military progress that has been achieved will end to be worthless.
Recommendations:
- The Roadmap must be committed more resources in order to strengthen the capacity of the Transitional Federal Government.
- As we look forward, it is important that the Transitional Federal Government and its allies seek an inclusive and broad-based political outlook that will create a strong partnership among stake holders.
- The immediate priority must now be to focus on addressing the security challenges which I mean strengthening and preparing Somali police and military forces for the future takeover of the country.
- International stake holders must cease in conducting what some of us called “The life support policy”, or policy of containment as things are in a very critical condition.
- Comprehensive country wide training about “Federalism” must be conducted in order to educate Somali people about the merits of federalism.
- I look forward for August 2012 to see new government structure including qualify parliamentarian members as well as President selected by the Somali People.
Abdihabib Yasin Warsame
Warsame.ali1@gmail.com